Analysis of the potential of renewable energy sources to strengthen Ukraine’s energy security

Abstract

The recent geopolitical landscape and the security challenges posed by historically relying on imported fossil fuels have forced Ukraine to make energy security an existential priority. This study aims to analyze the impact of transition towards renewable energy on Ukraine’s energy security index (ESI) for the period 2000-2020. The study employs the secondary data obtained from the International energy agency to implement multiple linear regression (OLS) to measure the influence of the adoption of renewable energy and the domestic production of renewable energy on the ESI. The results of the study suggest that the model is explainable. One of the major results of the study includes the cognition that the modern renewables share, which includes heating, transport and SDG 7.2, has more of an impact on domestic production than on energy security. In addition, the results of the study indicate that the renewable electricity sector is statistically insignificant. This suggests that Ukraine’s energy resilience is mainly determined by the need to decarbonize the heating sector which would eliminate the need for imported natural gas. The findings of the study suggest Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction to comply with the European green deal to achieve strategic autonomy. It suggests that the decentralization of renewable energy systems and fossil fuel energy is more than just an environmental strategy. It is rather an action of defense against over-reliance on foreign energy systems.