Newcomb-Benford law analysis on COVID-19 daily infection cases and deaths in Indonesia and Malaysia

Authors

  • Wei Kitt Wong
  • Filbert Hilman Juwono
  • Wan Ning Loh Curtin University Malaysia
  • Ik Ying Ngu

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37868/hsd.v3i2.53

Abstract

Each country has been racing to contain the spread of COVID-19. The published data of daily infection and death cases can be used to measure the effectiveness of the control interventions. We focus our study in two Southeast Asia countries: Indonesia and Malaysia during period between March and November 2020. Newcomb-Benford law has been commonly used to analyze the probabilities of the first significant digits in natural occurrences since the late 19th century. It is a prominent statistical tool for its capability to detect frauds in datasets. A chi-squared test was recruited to quantify the closeness of the data and Newcomb-Benford law distributions. The results revealed that the distributions of daily infection and death cases in Indonesia followed Newcomb-Benford law while the opposite results were obtained for Malaysia. We have done the analysis of verifying the daily COVID-19 infection and death cases in Indonesia and Malaysia using Newcomb-Benford law. It can be inferred that, between March and November 2020, the control interventions in Indonesia was less effective compared to Malaysia.

 

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Published

2021-07-20

How to Cite

[1]
W. K. Wong, F. H. Juwono, W. N. Loh, and I. Y. Ngu, “Newcomb-Benford law analysis on COVID-19 daily infection cases and deaths in Indonesia and Malaysia”, Heritage and Sustainable Development, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 102–110, Jul. 2021.

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Articles