US-China global competition and dilemma for Vietnam's strategic choices in the South China Sea conflict

Abstract

The South China Sea (SCS) conflict has become a critical factor for regional peace and development with growing geopolitical competition between China and the USA. To face the rising threat of China, the study argues that the balance of power theory is relevant to explain why Vietnam attempts to strengthen strategic alliances with the USA, Russia, EU, and India to balance against the rising threat of China in SCS. However, this theory is not able to explain why Vietnam has a bandwagoning policy toward China at the same time. To fill the gap of the previous studies, this study endeavors to put forward the point that as geopolitical rivalry between the two superpowers, the United States and China, intensifies, Vietnam is put in a predicament of balancing the economic and the political choices against the choices of taking a neutral stand against the assertiveness of China in the SCS. Further, the alternative traditional balance options with ASEAN, and Russia are not sufficiently effective for Vietnam to balance against China since the position of both ASEAN and Russia is much weaker than China. This study also suggests that the support of the USA, EU, and its alliance for Vietnam’s position creates unbearable costs for China’s aggressive behaviors in SCS. By using the mathematical and logical framework, the study suggests that Vietnam tends to adopt a mixed strategy (balancing, bandwagoning, neutrality) in dealing with China’s threats.